Bitcoin’s June Struggles Continue as S&P 500 Eyes Third Summer Rally

Bitcoin faces the potential fourth direct summer loss if it ends the section 2025 in red, while the S&P 500 records its third direct season gathering if its winning lane continues.

From 2020 to 2024, the S&P 500 recorded eight positive performances in July and August, while Bitcoins (BTC) had six. So while their summer trends are not completely separated, divergence became clear in June. Since 2020, Bitcoin has published only one positive June, while the S&P 500 recorded only two negative during the same range.

A closer look at the last few years shows that the summer sinks of bitcoins have less in common with seasonal patterns and more in common with cryptoral shocks and economic trends such as Chinese ban on mining, half and post-covid inflation.

Here is how it has happened for the last five years and what can lie before us.

Bitcoin begins decades of hot despite Chinese intervention

In June 2020 Bitcoin dropped by 3.18%. But the character masks the strong momentum of bitcoins heading within a month. He first broke over $ 10,000 from the Covid crash in February. Bitcoin had a sharp sale after the middle of the 11th May-the “sell newsletter” -Která asset reduced to approximately $ 5,000.

Until July, there were global stimulating packages and almost zero interest rates desire to risky assets, lifting stocks and crypto. The S&P 500 ended every month from June to August, while the crypto markets were raised by what it now remembers as “Defi Summer”, the first wave of agricultural mania yield.

But 2021 told another story when Bitcoin entered the summer with regulatory uncertainty at one of the biggest markets. China has intensified its interventions against Mining and trading with bitcoins in MayGrinding network and sending cryptocurrencies that fall until June.

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Momentum returned in July, partly due to growing institutional interests high -ranking figures Including Elon Musk, Jack Dorsy and Cathie Wood. This summer ended with Bitcoin by 8.68% – its last positive summer.

Bitcoins discourage Terra infection and raise increase

Summer 2022 was the worst for bitcoins and was also painful for traditional markets. It started Terra collapse In May, which launched an extensive infection across the blockchain industry.

Celsius was in June In the face of a crisis of liquidityand the Hedge Fund based on Singapore Three Capital Arrows collapsed. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has added salt to the wounds Denying the Gray Offer in Students to transfer your GBTC confidence to the Bitcoins (ETF) Fund.

At the same time American inflation hit a 40 -year -old maximum of 9.1%Choose an aggressive increase in the level of the federal reserve system. Sentiment of consumers, measured and University of Michigan IndexHe dropped to a record low and investors were disappointed for disappointing earnings of the second quarter.

However, Big Tech defeated expectations and helped S&P 500 to jump by more than 9% in July – its best July, because the main aggregators like Coinmarketcap started watching Bitcoins’ prices in 2013.

But optimism disappeared in August after the Fed chair Jerome Powell’s now unconscious Jackson Hole where he warned“We have to keep it until the work is finished,” the Fed confirms the fed. Bitcoin and S&P 500 were largely in the summer in the summer.

In June 2023, Bitcoin interrupted briefly from tradition. Wave of ETF applications – including one of the blackcockwhose ETF approval record was almost flawless – helped to move bitcoins in a month by 12%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 lagged when the Fed stopped measures, but kept the Hawkish tone and cooled the technical rally controlled AI, which dominated earlier in the year. Strong large technological earnings helped S&P 500 to recover in July.

Related: Data shows that the price of bitcoins is stabilized and gathered in the middle of regional conflicts

Bitcoins and shares, however, ended in August in red. The annual Powell Jackson Hole’s speech has re -suppressed the hopes of cut rates while the Chinese property of Evergrande File to protect against bankruptcy. Bitcoin saw a short recovery after American appeal neighborhood In his dispute ETF, but still closed the moon and summer in the negative territory.

In June 2024 Bitcoin fallen sharply as a weak influx just relaxes took their tax. The S&P 500 continued to rise, driven by optimism around the technological stock AI and Mega-Cap, such as NVIDIA, along with growing confidence in the soft economic landing of the Fed.

By August, Bitcoin slipped again in the middle of the renewed uncertainty of macro, including Chinese economic slowing and growing global trade. While the traditional markets also faced headwinds, the S&P 500 managed to close the Moon in a green, raised resistant technological performance and release of concerns about further power supply.

Bitcoin constantly integrates into global markets

July often brought strong yields for bitcoins, usually bounced from the weak June. These proceeds were governed by decreases specific to crypt -specific, such as half sales, falling from Chinese ban on mining and volatility related to ETF.

July is also a key month for shares, as companies report the revenues of the second quarter. This has led to recent profits in the S&P 500. Meanwhile, August brings increased attention to the annual speech of Jackson Hole Fed chair, which often provides hints into the attitude of the Fed to the rate policy.

This year, investors also monitor oil prices and inflation data closely when the Middle East and the war between Israel and Iran. After a US AIRSTRIKE O Iran 23rd June threatened Tehran Block HormuzKey oil route. The convenient ceasefire, mediated by President Donald Trump, will disintegrate, and both parties claimed that the other violated the conditions of the agreement. At the time of writing, Trump warned Israel not to be on the threat of “strong strikes” in Iran.

Such development could increase inflation and affect the risk of risk on markets.

While Bitcoins have more connected to traditional markets through ETF, corporate treasures and institutional flows, it remains uniquely vulnerable to crypto shocks.

Unlike shares that often move in synchronization with earnings, expectations of rates and wider macro trends, Crypto still responds disproportionately to its own internal catalysts. Therefore, strategies as “Sale in May” do not always translate through assets. Although the crypto ripens, its most serious decline still tends to come from the inside.

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