Where Did Bitcoin’s Retail Go? Look Offchain

With me:

• Onchain metrics suggest that retail investors are sleeping but Aum ETFS is growing

• Retail investors hold most of the shares of Spot Bitcoin ETF – directly or indirectly through investment advisors and securing funds acting behind their name.

• Direct demand for retail investors can be sleeping, but not dead, especially outside the US, where self -confidence remains essential.

There is a widespread assumption that bitcoins (BTC) cannot move higher because Retail investor Demand dries. Onchain data seems to support this story: the activity of a small wallet is at a multi -year minimum. But is it really a whole picture?

Maybe the retail is still here, just not where we looked. This cycle, a large part of the retail demand, can flow through Tradfi’s traditions: Spot ETF, pension funds and brokerage accounts. If the ETF is calculated as a retail, it can change how the bitcoin market is understood.

Who buys point bitcoin ETF?

Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF Spot in the US in January 2024, Bitcoin has entered the portfolios of clients who could never hold it directly because of lack of technical trust or unwillingness to drive self.

Institutions also buy ETF for their regulatory clarity and easy accounting. Among them are investment advisors and hedge funds of the largest holders of ETF and control the exhibition of bitcoins named retail and corporate clients. Banks, insurance companies and pension funds also enter, not only hold BTC, but also offer exposure to their customers.

Together, ETF shareholders in Bitcoins own approximately $ 135 billion.

According to analyst Bloomberg Eric BalchunasInvestment advisors account for almost half of the assets of $ 21 billion reported through 13F submissions – the growing subgroup of the total ETF exposure, which now represents approximately 20% of all ETF shares. Hedge funds monitor ETF shares worth $ 6.9 billion (about $ 83,934), followed by brokerage and holding companies.

Coinshares message It adds color: Goldman Sachs leads $ 1.8 billion among financial advisors, while the millennium management culminates in Hedge funds with $ 1.6 billion.

ETFs are also retail

It is tempting to categorize ETF flows as purely institutional, unlike the known image of a small retail stacking of the wallet. This lens YES – direct retail demand has disappeared.

As André Dragosch, Research Head of Bitewis, Cointlegraph,

“The retail has so far been the main distributor of bitcoins in 2025 on the basis of our calculations. Meanwhile, public and funds and funds and ETPs in 2025 were the largest source of demand for bitcoins.”

Dragosch, however, added

“It is certainly true that retail participation is also strongly expressed via ETPS/ETF, as these investment vehicles remain strongly controlled by retail.

Therefore, if the end holder BTC ETF is an ETF sharing with a retail client, the time can be again considered how onchain data is interpreted. It can be the new reality of the Bitcoin market: New retail demand prefers to maintain bitcoins on an intermediary account and not in the area of ​​self -confidence. Although this approach is contradictory to the original ethos of Bitcoin, it attracts many people who believe in their investment thesis.

Explosive success Spot ETF is proof of retail interest, even if it does not register onchain. Ishares Bitcoin Trust (Ibit) has already generated more income than its flagship S&P 500 ETF (IVV), by Bloomberg—The kick is a phenomenon.

Related: Why can’t bitcoin prices break $ 112,000 all time? BTC analysts explain

Why can’t bitcoins hit a new maximum?

Yet the cost of ETF remains the price of bitcoins under pressure.

As a cryptoquant chart It illustrates, in January 2025, the apparent demand of bitcoins has reached a peak of about $ 1.6 million, which doubled the combined inflow of ETF and strategy. Today, with the ETF flows, this number rolled over to negative territory and threw itself at -857,000 $.

In other words, the current tide – even IS ETF – is not enough to settle ongoing drains. The market may need a main catalyst, for example Reducing interest ratesReignite demand. Such a trigger would be beneficial mainly by institutions and their clients who now play a central role in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Alexandre Stachtchenko, Director of the Strategy in the French Cryptocurrency Paymium, recognizes this shift:

“In the end, the retail retail will go through the traditions of Tradf, it’s my long -term belief.”

Nevertheless, it explains that it does not mean that the direct retail demand will disappear. While richer American investors can opt for exposure through Blackrock and peers, retail participants in places such as Nigeria or Argentina will probably continue to continue to buy and hold the BTC directly.

Perhaps the direct retail demand did not disappear – he just died. And in the right conditions, this could still be reappeared.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The opinions, ideas and opinions expressed here are the author himself and do not necessarily reflect or present the opinions and opinions of Caintelegraph.