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Bitcoin (BTC) continued trading between $ 100,000 and $ 110,500 for the second week in a row because smaller investors replaced the whales on the purchase side, Bitfinex Alpha reported July 7.
The report noted that the BTC spent most of July within 10% channel, limited to January to a maximum of $ 109,590 and a floor near a short-term holder realized (STH-RP) of $ 99,474.
Despite the short fall under STH-RP last week to touch the minimum $ 98,220, Bitcoin bounced off at the upper limit after the buyers entered the six-digit brand.
The report characterized the zone as a short -term balance where Unrealized profits remain large But below the levels that stimulated a heavier division in previous recording attempts.
This combination of lighter profitable and muted escape dynamics suggests that the market is waiting for the catalyst to break out of the range.
StH-RP continues to be carried higher, because newer participants, including the allocators of the exchange fund, add coins. The report compared the formula with 2024, when the influx of funds traded on the Stock Exchange (ETFS) repeatedly prevented STH-RP during the climb to earlier peaks.
The report stated that the metric overlaps with the current price minimum strengthens it as the structural floor of the range. The price action above this level indicates ascending distortion until macroeconomic data or shifts in liquidity break the blockage.
Location is directed towards smaller holders
Derivative traders show less beliefs at the upper limits. The report labeled 4 July a decline by $ 1.8 billion (5%) in a summary open interest that deleted two days of profits and signaling that futures closed the accounts rather than pursuit of higher prints.
Coad data on the string confirms distribution. Wallets hold 1,000 to 10,000 BTC from June 30, about 14,000 BTC, while short -term holders added about 382,000 BTC in the same window.
The report noted that the transmission of supplies reflects the middle whales to cut the exposure, as retail and institutional newcomers will enter the hint. Further stated that this is Playback of the late cycle that appeared in previous gatherings.
The appreciated wallets reduce the weight of uncertainty, but the constant influx of ETF, the allocation of balance sheets and smaller buyers has compensated the drain and maintained the price compression properly.
In this scenario, the report warned that relying on fresh participants amplify the sensitivity to any future volatility because these holders lack historical anchoring over $ 100,000.
The report also observed the weakening of short -term momentum after multiple failures to clean $ 110,500. Each rejection coincided with the futures liquidation waves and a decline in open interest, indicating a limited subsequent strength.
Yet Bulls retained structural control of sth-RP defense and prevented permanent closure underneath. The report framed the departure as a “balanced market” without any party had enough lever effect to force a decisive break. Makro driver, such as changes in expectations, displacement of liquidity or ETF flow of flow would probably dictate the direction when they arrive.
