Here Are 5 Things to Watch for a Bitcoin Price Comeback

Bitcoin (BTC) The first whole of August starts at the intersection, because the market nerves are combined with a reflection of the BTC price.

• After jumping from the three -day minimum, the BTC Price Action price focuses on mixed targets with larger volatility August.

• The market environment is now fundamentally different from the old historical maximum since January, the analysis says.

• The macro conditions focus on the federal reserve system when the interest rate on September returns.

• Bitcoin Hodlers Stage at the beginning of the month at the beginning of the month, even with whales to reduce the exposure.

• The demand for bitcoins remains firmly in place and helps add context to the short -term market nerves.

116 500 $ becomes a new price of BTC “Magnet”

After he displaced under $ 112,000 last week, Bitcoin divides his opinion as data from COINTELEGRAPH Markets for and Tradingview It shows pressure on $ 115,000.

Concerns about the greater contrast price of BTC with the belief that retracement is over and that BTC/USD is Preparation for a new historical maximum.

$ Btc The graph could not be more bull.

Repeated testing of previous ATH ✅

Daily close above SMA 50 ✅

Now BTC looks good for new ATH. pic.twitter.com/jzvfir4cjt

– Bitbull (@akabull_) 4th August 2025

“$ BTC continued in its lane setting high or low during the first week of the month. We will have to find out if August will be different,” said Daan Crypto Trades in his latest analysis Na X.

“We know that the current monthly high ($ 116,000) has a very low chance of possession because we have never seen a monthly wick in the last 4 years.”

Crypto shops Daan compared a recent transfer of prices with those during 2025, which concluded that volatility has not yet been sufficient.

“The current move from high to low is also only ~ 3.6%,” he said.

“There is also a very high probability that we will take a bigger step this month. The smallest monthly low to a high difference in a month is about 10%in BTC in the last 4 years. Of course, this does not say anything about the direction.”

Also colleague trader Crypto Caesar eyes A “big reflection” for the beginning of Trading Week, comparing the current price action with movements that have been observed since May.

Analysis of liquidity for exchange orders, popular the endfisher commentator identified $ 116,500 as a key level at which short BTC positions would be disposed of.

“Most merchants are probably just staring at the price action but smart money knows that this is where the fuel is for movement,” he said X watching on Sundays call $ 116,500 for “magnet”.

Trend Line Bitcoin holds the key to the Deja Vu action

When it hit the old historic maximum 109 300 $ in JanuaryBitcoin saw a retracement that proved to be lengthy and painful for bulls.

By April BTC/USD installed Multimonth minimum below $ 75,000When more than 30%were withdrawn compared to heights.

A quick move forward for half a year and a few decreases by almost 10% against its latest record peak, which leads to a comparison with an earlier price action.

For trader Crypnuevo, there were few reasons to think that bitcoins would simply repeat the behavior of the old maximum.

“Is the January price event repeat now?” He asked in X fiber Sunday.

“The conversion of PA was almost identical at the heights, because after a reduction in momentum it is a common formula.

Crypnuevo said that January saw a trip under the 50 -day exponential gliding average (EMA), which then turned into resistance.

The 50 -day trend line EMA is currently close to $ 112,900, while the price sees 2. August only one day below it.

“In January we saw 1D50EMA’s resistance. I doubt we see it now.

Crypnuevo said the “market structure and context” differed since January and showed on Increasing chances to reduce interest rate in the US in September.

The consensus again prefers to reduce the rate in September

With less American economic data, the federal reserve system is at the center of attention this week.

Standoff with President Donald Trump continues at the interest rates that chairman Jerome Powell and other officials to decide at their last meeting.

Powell is already facing challenges to resign on Trump about politics, which the latter considers too restrictive and expensive to the economy.

“Powell should be released to pasture,” ” asking In the paper on the truth of Social 1 August.

Mixed inflation data and the strong labor market allowed the Fed to hold firmly on their course but The latest tasks data Restage doubts about how long cuts can be avoided.

As a result, market expectations are expected, but now they are back to the initial reduction of 0.25% at the next Fed session in September, the CME Group data Fedwatch.

In the coming days they will get out of several characters of seniors, including vice -chairman for supervision of Michelle Bowman, who previously signaled That a decrease in the rate in July would be open.

The results of earnings continue to enter the background of the reinforcement of American trade tariffs.

“Volatility returned when August officially started with the earnings season in full swing,” the trading source Kobeissi summed up VA fiber on x Sunday.

BTC Price DIP connects large and small retailers

Bitcoins were immersed in the new three -day minimum under $ 112,000 in the middle of the ongoing sale, including all from smaller retail investors to giant whales.

Onchain Analytics Platform Cryptoquant monitored the influx of exchanges and concluded that the risk of the risk market was going.

Only 1 August, more than 40,000 BTC hit the exchanges with a loss Compared to the last time it has moved, only from short -term holders (STHS), entities liked for six months or less.

At the same time, the ratio of exchange whales, which monitors the share of tributaries from whales, has reached “dominant” levels.

“When large deposits match the whales that dominate these deposits, the market usually enters the sales pressure phase and rapid drop,” wrote Arab Chain Cryptoquant Arab Chain in one of its Outfit Blog posts on Saturday.

“If the whales continue to store bitcoins for exchanges at the same pace, further pressure on the price of bitcoins is expected.”

Bitcoin demand “still here” – analysis

Cryptoquant looked at the wider view of the dynamics of demand and came to mixed conclusions that should eventually prefer bulls.

Related: Bitcoin Dip Making ‘Perfect Bottom’, says the analyst: Will BTC gather at $ 148,000?

While prices have led to rapid changes in Hodler’s taste to maintain the previous level of BTC exposure, long -term trends show that bitcoins are firmly desired.

“Some investors are probably beginning to worry about the recent price drop, especially STH, who are now either forced to realize losses or hold underwater positions. Assess whether the situation could significantly deteriorate, the analysis of current demand is necessary,” said Darkfost in Outfit after Sunday.

Darkfost identified a metric of apparent demand, which measures newly mined bitcoins on a van that remained inactive in the last year.

“When the ratio drops below zero, it means that the demand has changed negative; on the contrary, as it rises above zero, it signals positive demand,” he said.

“At present, demand remains clearly positive and about 160,000 BTC accumulates over the past 30 days.”

The accumulator wallets that only buy BTC and do not have outgoing transactions have increased the exhibition by 50,000 BTC in the last month.

A longer -term view covering an over -the -counter (Father) Similarly, shops show a clear trend. OTC Desk Holdings is now over half a million BTC compared to only 145,000 BTC in 2021.

“Whether we look at short or long -term demand, the picture remains broadly positive,” Darkfost concluded.

“There are no main signs of concerns about the indicators on the side of the demand, despite the recent volatility of prices.”

This article does not contain investment counseling or recommendations. Every investment and business step includes a risk and readers should do their own research in decision -making.