After CZ’s Pardon, Odds Rise for Sam Bankman-Fried’s Second Chance

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Will Sam Bankman-Fried, former CEO of FTX, be pardoned?

Bettors at Polymarket they say it’s a long shot, but the odds jumped 5 percentage points to 12% after Binance founder Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao pardoned by Trump Thursday US time. Through Kalshithere was a bigger jump where the contract asking for SBF waivers rose 9 percentage points to 16%.

Earlier this year, the SBF launched a media charm offensive with appearance on Tucker Carlson’s podcast as part of a broader effort to reshape his public image and lay the groundwork for a potential presidential pardon.

Former FTX CEO leans into conservative media, claims he was punished for supporting Republicans while his parents they are quietly courting allies in President Donald Trump’s inner circle in hopes of getting a pardon for their son’s 25-year prison sentence.

Although the likelihood of SBF being pardoned is currently low, Polymarket traders were taken aback by Trump’s decision to pardon CZ.

For most of the contract’s life, the probability of a pardon hovered between 20% and 40%, signaling widespread skepticism that any leniency was imminent.

For as accurate as research shows prediction markets, they sometimes miss things by underestimating the odds of outcomes. Maybe they’re doing the same with SBF, because the surprise, sorry, would be kind of the ending twist Altruists – upcoming Netflix series about the FTX crash – the authors would strike out that they’re too hung up on it until it happens.

Market movement:

BTC: Bitcoin rose 2.7% to around $110,700 on Thursday, rebounding from Wednesday’s decline as markets rallied ahead of Friday’s September inflation report.

ETH: Ether is trading near $3,850 as analysts point to a potential Wyckoff re-accumulation phase, with rising institutional demand fueling speculation of a break of $8,000-$10,000 later in the cycle.

Gold: Gold is trading around $4,126, up nearly 50% this year after hitting a record above $4,000, as geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over Fed policy and strong central bank purchases drive demand, although Morgan Stanley warns high prices could slow purchases of jewelry and reserves, even as it raises its 2026 forecast to $4,400.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose on Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.78%, after the White House confirmed Trump-Xi talks next week.

Elsewhere in crypto:

• Fireblocks buys crypto-authentication startup Dynamic and completes its ‘administration-to-consumer’ offering (The Block)
• Alt5 Sigma Suspends CEO Peter Tassiopoulos, Names Jonathan Hugh Interim Head (CoinDesk)
• Trezor Introduces ‘Quantum-Ready’ Safe 7 Hardware Wallet (Unscramble)