Are We Set For a Major Shake-Up of Social Media?

It seems like we’re at a tipping point for social media, a moment where there’s a viable possibility for a competitor to come in and dilute the power of the incumbents.

But are we really?

Of course, Meta has reversed its moderation standards to appease the incoming president, while Elon Musk turned Twitter into a propaganda machine for his own interests, and TikTok is on its way from the US

We also now have viable competition, in Bluesky and related, decentralized social applicationswhich can provide similar functionality to large companies.

Yet even then, historically speaking, major controversies have not fueled mass user migrations in the past. And despite many loud complaints and proclamations of defiance in the face of capitalist agendas, I still don’t see a single competitor taking huge chunks of users away from the big players.

Take Meta, for example, which drew widespread condemnation with its moderation update last week. Many users vowed to quit Meta’s apps in protest, but Facebook continued to do so add users every quarteralthough it has already exceeded about 3 billion users.

It must be close to saturation point in many regions and I think time spent in the app must have dropped significantly in recent years (Meta did not share data on time spent in the app since 2016). But everyone still checks Facebook every day to make sure they don’t miss any important updates from family and friends.

Because Facebook has its own massive network graph that connects more people you actually know than any other platform. It’s an extremely powerful draw, and the Meta could do it too increase the time spent in the application in recent years by pushing AI-recommended Reels into people’s feeds.

Sure, his shift back to a greater focus on politics might alienate some users, but do you really think he’s going to leave Facebook entirely? We’ll see when Meta releases its Q1 usage data, but looking at the trends, I don’t see much, if any, change.

I mean, people didn’t leave after The scandal with Cambridge Analyticawhen it was discovered that Meta allowed third-party apps and tools to mine user data for whatever purpose they wanted. This is despite trust in the platform down 66%so I don’t see that happening this time either.

Instagram and Threads are also unlikely to be affected, although Threads will be most affected by the change in approach to political content. My prediction, however, would be that it will improve the Threads experience, allowing for a broader focus on real-time news discussion, which is limitations in politics hindered until now.

So, if anything, I suspect Threads will get more attention as a result, and as an alternative to X, despite steady interest in Bluesky. With 25 million users, Bluesky is the largest of the decentralized challengers to date and has the best chance to lead a small technological advance. But 25 million is just a fraction of Threads 300 million usersand 100 million daily active (and growing). And without a significant shift in momentum, it’s hard to see it attracting enough users from Meta and X.

X also kept his 250 million active userseven if it has failed to increase that number since November 2022. The exodus of users from the app appears to be countered by an influx of Musk supporters, while many sports, gaming and music communities they still rely on the platform for real-time updates. As such, I suspect that the anti-Musk disorder has largely been resolved, with the remaining users accepting various changes to the app. Elon’s political commentary will continue to make less waves than him, although the results of the US election may end up bringing more people back, and he will remain relevant to hundreds of millions of users.

And then there is the TikTok ban, and the rise of alternative Chinese apps in its place.

This won’t last, as Lemon8 is also owned by TikTok’s parent company ByteDance and will likely be shut down in the US at the same time or shortly after TikTok if the sell-off law is upheld and no other solution is found. Xiaohongshu it will also come under scrutiny if it reaches a certain level of use in the US. And even then, Xiaohongshu isn’t designed for American users, and isn’t likely to catch on in any significant way.

Which will bring TikTok users back to IG or YouTube Shorts, which are the best alternatives to TikTok at this stage. Other options are not suitable, in terms of reach, monetization potential, etc. And without top creators, other apps won’t attract enough audience.

It is also worth noting that when TikTok was banned in Indiawhere it once had 250 million users, Instagram subsequently saw a record number of new installations in the region.

US trends are likely to follow suit, so while many would prefer an alternative, and many will look for other options, it looks like Meta will be the ultimate winner of the TikTok ban in America.

That’s why Zuckerberg predicted until which the company will change the moderation approach people are leaving his platforms “for virtue signalling,” a comment that drew much criticism of his stance on such a sensitive subject.

But what he’s saying is that, historically, people don’t leave Meta’s apps, even if there’s a small advocate who will make noise about leaving them to send a message.

We’ll see how things play out, but there haven’t been any significant moves yet to signal that any alternative will gain traction and the Meta, X and other incumbents should fear a significant backlash.

Because it’s hard to get millions or billions of people to change their daily habits, and without a significant portion of them doing so, it won’t be enough momentum to hurt the social media titans.

Indeed, TikTok is the only app that has significantly disrupted the industry in the past decade, and until a similar challenger emerges, with similar innovations (TikTok’s algorithmic advances were a step ahead of other apps), building a viable alternative will remain largely out of reach.