Assessing Possible Outcomes in the Final Days for TikTok in the US

So where are we with TikTok and what’s next for the Chinese short video app?

Well, apparently according to official reports as of now, TikTok will indeed be removed from the U.S. next week, with the Senate-approved sellout bill taking effect on January 19, which is a Sunday.

But there are rumors of a variety of potential scenarios that could keep TikTok going, but with just days left, how far any of these alternatives are possible remains to be seen.

Here’s a rundown of the current options reportedly on the table for TikTok in the US

Scenario 1: TikTok has been banned in the US since Sunday

As stated, the most likely scenario, based on publicly available information so far, is this a law will be passed on the sale of TikTokas originally planned, on Sunday.

When that happens, it was originally expected that TikTok would remain available via downloaded apps on people’s phones, and that functionally US users would still be able to access the app for a while, though new downloads would be cut off immediately.

But TikTok apparently plans to exclude US users completely if/when the law goes into effect, with a redirect in place that sends them to an explanation of why the app has become unavailable.

TikTok also creates contingencies that would allow it to quickly turn the app back on, if the account can be canceled at a later stage.

But at least right now, the most likely outcome seems to be that TikTok will black out US users, at least for a while, because other options haven’t been approved.

Scenario 2: Trump prepares the application

Future President Donald Trump has repeatedly pointed out that he wants to save the applicationon which he now has millions of followers. Trump found new value in TikTok in his recent presidential campaign, and therefore has more to do with the app and more incentive to try to save it.

But his ways to do so are limited.

This is especially true since he is not yet in office and will not be inaugurated until the day after the TikTok sales law goes into effect. As such, Trump has sought to delay any decision on TikTok until he is sworn in, but that request has yet to be approved by the Supreme Court.

The court itself is still hearing TikTok’s appeal of the billwhich may also reveal that TikTok has a case and delay the implementation of the act. But all indications are that the court will uphold the original bill approved by senators last year.

The latest reports suggested that Trump could issue an executive order it would have ordered the agencies not to enforce the TikTok ban, effectively nullifying the approved bill. But again, he couldn’t do that until the ban went into effect.

Essentially, there are limited ways Trump could go, and all of them are pretty drastic. And none of them will prevent the TikTok ban from taking effect, at least initially.

But it’s also worth noting that TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew did plans to attend Trump’s inauguration next week. This could suggest that a partnership is in the works that will increase TikTok’s chances of staying or returning.

Scenario 3: A US-based buyer takes over

Another possible outcome is that a US-based buyer could be found for the application, although this also seems unlikely given the short turnaround time for such an application.

TikTok has repeatedly noted that the deadline is too short for a sale agreement, and then it is 270 daysso it seems unlikely that they will be able to arrange a sale within the remaining hours.

However, reports indicate that:

So there are, at least in theory, options available that could keep TikTok in the US if ByteDance and the Chinese government want to go ahead with the sale.

A key condition, however, could also be that the Chinese authorities commit not to sell TikTok’s all-powerful algorithm, which would significantly affect the value of the platform.

Without it, it’s unclear what a separate US TikTok would be, even if a sale could be agreed in time.

Scenario 4: Biden saves TikTok

In one of the more bizarre twists in the TikTok selloff, Biden administration officials are now also apparently looking to save the app in the US, despite the approval of the original sale bill.

According to reportsBiden’s team is looking at alternatives to make the app work for Americans and said users “we should not expect TikTok to be suddenly banned on Sunday.”

So cool, I guess. Biden and Co., who signed the deal, are now vowing to ignore it.

I don’t know, it seems strange, but maybe that’s another possibility, and maybe the Biden team will try to extend the deadline for the legislation into Trump’s term, giving Trump more time to negotiate an alternative.

However, overall, the most likely outcome seems to be a suspension of TikTok in the US, with the possibility of the app returning at a later date. It looks like Trump will restart and get some of the priorities going, but it may not be possible to completely halt the current selloff.

But then again, there are options, and all of this could mean nothing, and TikTok could end up operating, unchanged, despite months of Senate hearings and legal wrangling.

Which would seem like an expensive exercise in bureaucratic futility, but maybe we’ll get it.