Bitcoin could hit a new ATH in Q3, but mid-term caution persists

• The Middle BTC view looked cautious and in accordance with historical summer calm.
• However, Bettors polymarket was greatly expected by the new ATH in Q3.

Bitcoin [BTC] He regenerated $ 108.2k and expanded his rally to almost 10%in the middle of the week, thanks to the relatively calm markets by agreement on the ceasefire of Israel-Oran.

Despite the short -term Optimistic outlookAccording to Glassnode, however, the market was set in the middle.

SITING OPTIONS SILTIONOR SITMENTOROR, 25 DELTA SKEW, Analytical Company marked Bear sentiment, as shown by a negative chamfer for 3 months and 6 -month tenors.

“3m and 6m (chamfer) remain negative (-2.6%, -4.3%). In combination with the challenge profile, this shows a reduced short -term panic, but a persistent medium term.”

Source: Glassnode

This meant a premium for Puts (Bearish Bets) for calls (bull bets) at the end of Q3 and December 2025.

Summer seasonal in the game?

Not surprisingly, the above -mentioned sentiment and placement on the market, especially for Q3, reflected the summer seasonal seasonal seasonal.

According to Coinglass’ historically Performance, summer has always been the worst time for BTC. On average, BTC published 6%of the yields in the fourth quarter, with the best period is Q4 (85%), followed by Q1 (54%).

Source: Coinglass

However, not all months in the fourth quarter worked badly in the past. In particular, July was remote, with an average of 7.5%, indicating a historical weakening in August and September.

If history is repeated, July could offer modest profits that follow the sale of pressure then. Most analysts associate this trend with low business activities due to summer holidays.

However, the previous performance does not guarantee future results.

In fact, polymarket Bettors bet against the above seasonality. The prediction site greatly expects a new historical high (ATH) before October, with more than 85% chance For such a result.

In other words, the market expects pressure over $ 112,000 in Q3. Analyst StockMoney Lizards echo This consensus and disrupted the potential jump to $ 115,000 by August.

Source: StockMoney Lizards/X