Bitcoin Holds $107K As Stagflation, Fed Rate Cuts Loom

With me:

• Bitcoin spent a week fighting to maintain over $ 107,000, but the influx of stock exchange remains at historical minimums, because retail investors decide to sit on the sidelines.

• Stagflation becomes a real risk of slowing the US growth, but feed rates could exceed the situation and the cost of bitcoins.

• Data onchain shows that bitcoiners accumulate, suggesting that there will be another escape in the autumn of 2025.

After a short immersion below $ 99,000 has bitcoin regenerated $ 107,000, hope for hope for an immediate escape. Yet something feels. There is no Fomo on the purchase side and no retail investor. Just a quiet, restless assembly driven funds, whales and merchants, while onchain activity looks scary.

It does not look like a typical bull rally. Under the surface, the American economy flashes warning signals, while the Fed is stuck, torn between the fight against inflation and the support of the weakening economy.

Under such conditions, bitcoin could prosper like a hedge against uncertainty. But can the market stand up on the balance sheet – not the belief – really break up to a new maximum? He whispers louder with stagflation, the answer can come this fall.

Should American braces for stagflation?

The word “stagflation” does not have to appear in the half -year report of Jerome Powell Congress on Wednesday, but it was hard to hang over his notes. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve has repeated that the central bank is “well to wait” until more data explains whether the tariffs of US President Donald Trump will cause an inflation to increase. Meanwhile, fresh data signals slow down growth, increasing unemployment and stubborn inflation – the definition of a textbook of the stagflation environment.

17th June Fed officials reduced GDP forecast to 1.4% per year 2025, from 1.7% in March. Inflation projections have risen to 3%of the previous 2.7%, while unemployment is now expected to reach 4.5%, 4.4%.

The private sector data confirms the trend. Monday S&P Global Pmi Flash Reading dropped to 52.8 in June from 53.0 in May, indicating the fading of momentum. Exports decrease, reserves grow, which reflects customs concerns and consumer demand looks fluctuating.

What’s more, on Thursday the US Office for Economic Analysis revised Q1 Real HDP from -0.3% to -0.5%, which confirms the fragility of the American economy. Even more related, personal consumption growth dropped to 0.5%, its weakest since 2020, while basic inflation climbed to 3.8%.

Meanwhile, the tariff war was far from over. As analysts from a letter to Kobeissi warnTrump’s 90 -day Paufy tariff now has only 12 days left. This means that without any new stores, the US will introduce “mutual tariffs” specific to countries, including tariffs of up to 50% on EU imports, maintaining a global 10% basic tariff.

Meanwhile, the Terms and Conditions with China remain at a 90 -day pause after a bilateral agreement 14 May, which will determine a separate date for 12 August. While today’s framework on rare soil metals and the release of technological restrictions is determined by the tone, the final agreement among the largest economies in the world is still far from being secured.

As the Israeli-Iran War disappears from the headlines, the trade war can soon repeat the Reflector and the increased inflation expectations. For bitcoins and other hard assets, this macro background is usually bull. However, this bull market is missing a key piece.

Bull market without believers?

Onchain bitcoins indicate that the market lacks the broad beliefs they usually see in the bull cycles. According to CryptoquantThe average influx of binance bitcoins has collapsed at 5,700 BTC per month, which is lower than the level recorded during the bear market. This time silence.

The rapid recovery of the last Sunday slump, which caused Israeli strikes in Iran, shows that there is still a lot of money ready to buy immersion. Like Glassnode message It shows that this money seems to be concentrated between sophisticated traders, hedge funds and institutional tables, not a retail crowd. As the bitcoin transaction counts and increases in size, offchain has shifted, and the actions are now dominated by eternal swaps.

Bitcoin Vector, the Willy Woo and Swissblock project, it sincerely summarizes:

“The tide turns in favor of bulls, but onchain force is a missing piece. Without recovery in the foundations and key components (liquidity + network growth), a speculative, driven by lever effect, not belief. Bulls need more than just control of the structure to maintain this movement.”

This raises the key question. Can the bull market mainly follow an institutional investor – and not retail enthusiasm – itself?

Summer calm – or peace before the storm?

While speculation flourishes offchain, long -term holders accumulate quietly. Axel Adler Jr. He notes that the ratio of long -term and short -term holders is growing again, as the previous previous assembly was around $ 28,000 and $ 60,000. Adler Jr. said

“Today, at $ 100,000, we can see the lasting growth of the LTH/STH ratio again: This storage phase could take 4-8 weeks, then analogously to the previous cycles, it is likely that upward conversion is likely.”

If historical patterns were held, according to the analyst, another foot of bitcoins could focus on a range of $ 160,000.

Season Supports this timing. Bitcoin historically insufficiently performance in summer. The data from the last decade show that from 21 May to 25 September, the average annualized bitcoin yield is only +15%, compared to +138% for the rest of the year. Recently, summer is often bearish, with an average seasonal drawing of –17.6% since 2017.

This history means that the coming months may be less fireworks and more about consolidation – the storage phase where the supply is quietly tightened under the surface.

Related: The US Mortgage Regulator for Housing Consists Bitcoins in the middle of the housing crisis

If economic data continue to deteriorate – especially the demands on the Fed and Fed Fed PCE’s popular core reads on Friday and Saturday – Fed could actually reduce rates in September and October. This release would arrive directly when Bitcoin leaves its seasonal slump and the long -term holders accumulate enough.

Like Glassnode speech“The structure remains supportive, but the escape of the new maximum is likely to require a clear picking of demand, activities and beliefs.” Whether this belief occurs in time depends on two things: Fed and whether Bitcoin can re -capture the public’s imagination.

This article does not contain investment counseling or recommendations. Every investment and business step includes a risk and readers should do their own research in decision -making.