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With S2F in the rear view, it shows a live power-law channel BTC is roughly 20% below fair value, but ETF flows could push it to either extreme.
Bitbo implementation Model Giovanni Santostasi it places price near $109,700, fair value near $136,100, support near $48,300 and resistance near $491,800, framing the current cycle in a rising corridor derived from a power law adjusted to price over time.
A channel is constructed by running a linear regression of log(price) versus log(time since origin), then duplicating that line in parallel to create upper and lower bounds that have historically contained cyclical extremes.
The result is a composite time-based curve with rails that move upward over time, making the model more of a position map than a point forecast.
The basic statement is easily evaluated in live markets. Bitcoin is trading about 20 percent below the real value regression and more than twice above the lower bound of the model, a position in the middle zone that contrasts with the tops and bottoms of the previous cycle when the price indicated resistance or channel support.
Parameterization used by the user BGeometry expresses the real value curve as P ≈ 1.0117×10^-17 × (days since inception)^5.82, with a commonly reported lower bound of about 0.42 times the curve, which is consistent with the current gap between the spot price and the lower edge of Bitbo.
The spec includes historical drawdown while allowing for a late cycle pull towards the upper band.
The logic of this approach treats adoption as a power function of time and expects volatility to decrease as the network matures, a property that appears as tightening oscillations around the regression line over successive cycles.
Bitcoin sticks to the path of power laws as ETFs rewrite the cycle
Recent flows help explain why the price is in the middle of the channel rather than at the extreme. Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) drained a record $5.95 billion in net inflows during the week ending October 4, 2025, with bitcoin hitting an all-time high of around $126,000along with strong demand for US spot bitcoin ETFs.
The following two weeks showed that the flows were not a one-way entry. CoinShares saw a swing to $3.17 billion in net inflows, followed by a reversal to $513 million in net outflows, including a one-week Bitcoin outflow of $946 million.
In the past two days alone, $958 million has left US Bitcoin ETFs, with $290 million leaving BlackRock on October 30.
This cadence is consistent with a power-law framework, where transient demand surges or air pockets push prices to highs or lows over the course of weeks, while the long-term trajectory is anchored to the time curve of performance. The October highs were associated with a breakout wave of ETF subscriptions, which are now a visible macro lever for cryptocurrency demand.
The question going forward is therefore not whether the power law structure still holds, but where within the channel Bitcoin will be traded in the next stage.
The base case path keeps price oscillating around the regression, currently near $136,100, with muted amplitude if the downside volatility property holds.
A bullish case path would see continued ETF inflows and favorable macroeconomic conditions pull the price toward the upper resistance, today near $491,800, which previous cycles reached during late-stage runs.
A bear case scenario would arise from macro tightening, a regulatory shock, or a sustained ETF outflow, causing a retest of the bottom near $48,300. This level has historically seen capitulation wicks before re-entering the channel.
These levels increase with time as an exponent in days from the formation of the compounds. Rails are directional guards, not fixed targets.
For readers following the levels at a glance, the live model lines are:
| Measures | Level |
|---|---|
| Spot price | ≈ $109,700 |
| Fair value regression | ≈ $136,100 |
| Support (floor band) | ≈ $48,300 |
| Resistance (upper band) | ≈ $491,800 |
The debate over model choice is shaped by the breakdown of the once popular Stock-to-Flow approach.
PlanB’s S2F journey requested $98,000 by November 2021 and $135,000 by December 2021, goals that were not met.
The price then spent years below the S2F trajectory, an out-of-sample failure that weakened confidence in using a one-dimensional stock-to-flow ratio to set deterministic targets.
Vitalik Buterin has criticized S2F for providing false accuracy and many analysts have identified methodological problems, including overfitting, omitting demand and liquidity variables, and treating half values as incremental shifts in valuation that do not account for market microstructure.
Institutional researchers continue Attention that S2F is not a reliable long-term pricing tool. This leaves S2F as a scarcity narrative rather than a predictive model.
In contrast, power law proponents argue that cycle length and amplitude can be bounded without hard dating the results.
CryptoSlate previously outlined wide windows in which bitcoin would not sustain prices below roughly six figures after 2028, and could touch the seven-figure mark sometime between 2028 and 2037.
These are ranges, not calendar calls, and they inherit the same caveats as any model that ignores political shocks or structural changes in market access.
A new structural change is the flow of ETFs, which act as a demand valve that can override the marginal emissions reductions that the halving encodes.
Sustained weekly spot inflows above $2-3 billion would increase the likelihood of a test of the upper band, while sustained outflows would increase the likelihood of a regression or retest of the lower bound.
Macro liquidity, including the trajectory of rates, the dollar and central bank balance sheets, continues to play a central role in determining whether price holds above a regression or moves lower. This macro overlap is absent in S2F and is present only indirectly in accordance with a power law, which is why practitioners follow the flows and politics along the channel.
Clarity of methods is key given the increasing use of the model in institutional packages.
The power-law channel is constructed by taking the daily close of BTCUSD, converting it to log(price) versus log(time since origin), using simple linear regression as the real value curve, and then copying that line up and down in parallel to create the resistance and support that historically close the price.
The elegance lies in producing a monotonically rising time-based framework with a visible error that captures the extremes of the cycle so far without claiming to know the date or magnitude of future outages.
The cost is that it mechanically does not include known drivers such as ETF demand or liquidity cycles that need to be monitored to understand where price is likely to reside within the channel in the near term.
For now, live reading is simple. The price is about one-fifth below the retracement, well above the lower bound, with ETF flows and macroeconomic conditions determining whether Bitcoin will mark the upper band or weaken towards support before reverting to the mean.
The channel continues to rise with time and the tracks define the tradable map.
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