Focus on Powell’s Testimony, U.S. Core PCE Data as Trump’s Tariff Deadline Looms

Calm on the oil market after an American air strike at Iranian nuclear places interrupted the predictions of bears who predicted the picture Bitcoins price

. With this in mind, traders can look for the main events of the week that could affect markets.

The main event will probably be the chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell Semi -annual testimony of the currency policy of Congress.

Powell is likely to be grilled by members of the Republican Party for not lowering interest rates and “countries costs hundreds of billions”, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated social contributions in his truth. However, Powell is expected to repeat the independence of the Fed and the way forward data.

Traders will carefully monitor how Powell’s interest rate trajectory, due to the background of recent comments Governor Christopher Waller with the named Trump, that interest rates could be reduced in July.

“With the price of future inflation on the market well anchored, early cracks that appear on the labor market and housing activities apparently weak, there are reasons why the Fed will consider receiving a shift in the July FomC meeting and leading to cut in September – the price price for the US swap market,” Chris Weston said to x.

Dovisssh Councils could trigger more risks on financial markets and well for BTC, which has held mainly over $ 100,000 During the recent escalation of the Middle East conflict.

Markets expect the Fed to deliver two cuts for 25 basis points this year, but the purchase is not unanimous/

“We still think that the clarity of the inflationary story-and tariffs are already a one-off shock of the price, or if they cause more permanent inflationary pressures-they don’t come before the FOMC meeting, which means we will see only one rate reduction this year.” “However, if the job market continues to weaken, it may be a reduction in 50 bp.”

Core pce

On the data queue, the main release of Marquee is the release of the marquish of the main price of personal consumption (PCE) prices.

According to Peppstone, the consensus is to show data by 0.1% of the month -month increase in May, resulting in an analized growth rate of 2.6% and a three -month annual rate of 1.6%.

Expectations of a benign increase of 0.1% promote bets to reduce Fed rates; However, Ing is expected that the inflation impact of Trump’s tariffs will be launched since July.

Trump’s 90 -day pause for mutual tariffs, announced in early April, will be expired on July 9.

So far, the President has concluded an agreement with Great Britain and announced a business framework with China. Beijing still has to sign an agreement and the European Union remains quiet.

Iran’s tension has not ended yet

While the oil market is calm so far, Iran could cause damage without closing the strait of hormuz, a trade route that carries about one fifth of world oil.

By constantly threatening the closure of the strait, Iran could increase the cost of transporting insurance and eventually increase oil prices.

The cost of the vessel insurance for the Hormuz Strait has already increased from 20 cents per barrel to 80, message South China Morning Post said and quoted Athens based in Athens.

“By placing sufficient beliefs that they could disrupt this key logistics channel, the naval costs could increase to the extent that this would have a significant impact on the supply of raw and gas,” Weston said.