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Bitcoin (BTC) It enters the last week of June with geopolitics at a key intersection and volatility Macro to match – where will BTC go?
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Bitcoins are preparing for a new minimum because the liquidity of exchange orders moves towards the $ 90,000 brand.
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The latest development in the Middle East has triggered a reaction to the knee jerk to futures crypto, oil and supplies, but the analysis notes that the price of the “long -term conflict” is not awarded.
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The big week for the American Federal Reserve See that its “preferred” inflation breakup monitors two days of testimonies towards legislators by chairman Jerome Powell.
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Bitcoin dominance is still approaching the typical brand of long -term conversion in the potential triggering “Alteason”.
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2025 percentage profits may take over $ 200,000/USD, predicts the analysis.
Liquidity points to the new minimum BTC
Since the beginning of May, Bitcoins have been immersed at the lowest level before the weekly closure of around $ 101,000 was seal.
Data from COINTELEGRAPH Markets for and Tradingview It shows acceleration of pressure on the side of the sale, which occurs from steam near 98 000 USD-Kíčová area of the buyer’s interest measured by the liquidity of the book of exchange orders.
However, if this has been facilitated by a relief assembly, a popular trader Crypnuevo warns that further repetition of support can run deeper.
“Previously liquidity sat at $ 100,000 and $ 98,000 – and the price moved there directly,” note In the fiber to X when examining the order of order.
“Now it shows a lower, $ 95,000. This applies.”
Data from the monitoring source Coinglass Nevertheless, it shows the support that remains in the place, to the extent that coincides with the cost base for investors holding the BTC for six months or less.
“Since April, $ BTC correction has always found support for the short -term holder – the cost base of investors holding <155 days," Onchain Analytics Glassnode observed this week.
Glassnode, however, described what he described as “growing pressure on newer investors”, with only 3% of the new cohort of investors sitting on unrealized profits.
Other market participants are more cautious about the weakness of the market, among them the popular trader Roman, who has consistently forecast New local minimum on the background of the market with decreased bulls.
BTC/USD, X said X successors on June 23, is on a trip to $ 92,000 next.
Scenario $ Btc 1D NOW Invalid.
Failed to produce bull wonders, lost support, the volume began to increase to the disadvantage.
Expectations of 92-93 soon. https://t.co/em8y4cbm8g pic.twitter.com/fewmbmqufn
– Roman (@roman_trading) June 23, 2025
Markets shrugged “long -term conflict” in the Middle East
Bitcoin was react first The latest development in Israel and Iran’s conflict this weekend, which now directly includes the US.
However, the volatility of the late weekend was noticeably short -term, something reminiscent of an earlier phase in a two -week conflict.
Like BTC/USD, he quickly set low and bounced, so oil markets, and US futures soon narrowed any reactive movements.
Commenting, business resources, a letter to Kobeissi had reasons for optimism about what could come next.
“Over the past 72 hours, the US has bombed Iranian nuclear sites, Russia said that the countries are ready to deliver Iran Nukes and the Iranian parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing analysis x.
“It is not a market that is set for a long -term conflict.”
Kobeissi said that the markets “still expect war with a short life”, and price actions cut out countless panic and false stories.
“This market probably has the highest amount of noise ever seen,” he concluded.
“There is an endless noise between tariffs, wars, Fed, recession of Corries and inflation data.”
Pressure handles on Fed Powell in Pce Week
In addition to the Middle East, however, in the coming days in terms of macroeconomic volatility, more be careful.
The “preferred” inflation breakup of the Federal Reserve, the personal consumption index (PCE), is to be released on 27 June.
The data will be followed by the initial unemployment requirements and the second revision of the Q2 GDP the day before.
All this comes in a crucial time for the Fed that got under Increasing pressure on interest rates By US President Donald Trump.
Fed chair Jerome Powell, whom Trump recently called The “stupid person” is to testify to the House Financial Services Committee on 24-25. June.
“The uncertainty about the impact of tariffs is the introduction of the federal reserve system to a heavy place,” Mosaic Asset has summarized in the latest edition of its ordinary newsletter, “Market mosaic”
With reference to the Fed’s decision on Keep rates on current levels On June 18, however, the mosaic of the asset recorded the difference between them and inflation, which this year decreased and created the basis for most of Trump’s anti-Powell rhetoric.
“Last week, the central bank decided to maintain short -term Fed Fonds rates unchanged in the range of 4.25% – 4.50%,” she added.
“This means that the US political rate is the highest over other developed economies (the table below) and almost double the rate of inflation of consumers.”
Bitcoin Dominance Surge enters the final shifts
While bitcoin feels pressure from the uncertainty of macro, they are altcoins that are Loss management For crypto investors.
The combined market ceiling of altcoins, with the exception of the top ten cryptocurrencies, fell on June 22 to 202.16 billion USD – the lowest of April 18.
Altcoins have he fought constantly This year and the last, when bitcoins hit a new historical maximum and leave the leaders, ether (Eth), far behind.
In its last update to Bitcoin’s dominance Nevertheless, from the overall market crypto, the popular merchant and analyst of Rect Capital, he said that historical formulas can be repeated – and support Altcoin jump earlier than later.
Recording The X, Rect Capital reiterated that in the previous cycles, bitcoin dominance reached approximately 71% and then turned so that the door remained open to altcoins to catch up.
“If history repeats itself, the real altseason that everyone is waiting for, would begin as soon as Bitcoin’s dominance refuses from 71% (red),” he said.
AND Another post He acknowledged that the turning point may not come exactly to 71%, but a lower, potentially rushing beginning of the long -sought “altseason”.
“Most of the macro dominance of bitcoins have already taken place. And as in any BTCDom cycle, 71%approached,” he said.
BTC is still focused on $ 200,000 in 2025
Bitcoin market participants generally agree that the current bull market has room for running, but the analysis is now trying to filter out “micro signals” to confirm the strength of the market.
Related: Traders follow XRP, ETH, SOL and HYPE Now that Bitcoin trades below $ 100,000
This week, Onchain Analytics platform Cryptoquant took advantage of the bitcoin annual percentage trend (bypt) to say that 2025 is probably the last bull year of the current cycle.
“It reveals a recurring cycle of three years of growth followed by one consolidation that corresponds to a four -year rhythm in half Bitcoins,” explained contributor Carmelo Aleman in one of his “Outfit“Blog posts.
BYPT is a simple method of evaluating the price performance of BTC in a given year in a traditional four -year price cycle.
Aleman now sees 120% of profits in 2025 due to historical tendencies, giving the BTC/USD cycle the peak of more than $ 200,000.
“Bitcoin’s annual percentage trend is a tool that allows us to filter out daily noise on the market and re -connect with the true cyclic nature of bitcoins,” he concluded.
“It reminds us that besides the micro metrics and short -term candles, Bitcoin adheres to a structural rhythm that repeats with a significant consistency: three years of expansion followed by compression.”
This article does not contain investment counseling or recommendations. Every investment and business step includes a risk and readers should do their own research in decision -making.
