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TikTok’s new ultimatum — shut down in the US or get a lifeline from the Supreme Court — is the latest twist in a tumultuous month that has left markets reeling. The future of the app hangs in the balance, and marketers are navigating the murky waters of trying to understand what this all means for their plans.
Late last month, Chris (not his real name) sent an email to his TikTok representative. As a client ad spend management consultant at his agency, he needed clarity ahead of a critical moment for the app, a looming federal deadline that could force ByteDance to sell TikTok — or face a U.S. ban. The answer he got wasn’t just a story, it was practically a confession. TikTok representatives offered settlements to advertisers who blocked ad inventory by the end of the second quarter.
For the first time since whispers of a ban began six years ago, TikTok appeared to be bracing itself for the possibility that its American swan song might not be far off.
“In an email, our TikTok representative said that if you reserve inventory and the app is disabled, or for any reason the inventory cannot be delivered as promised, you will be refunded,” the US agency executive said.
It all just confirmed to Chris that the contingency plans he’s been helping his clients put together will be needed, even if TikTok insists otherwise. This means that these contingency plans were no longer just a precaution – they were to become a necessity.
Later today, the Supreme Court will hear arguments on a law that would ban the app in the US unless its owner, ByteDance, is sold. Signed into law by President Biden in April 2024 and upheld by a federal court in Washington, DC in December, it is set to go into effect on January 19.
The court’s decision will determine the fate of the cultural juggernaut, powered by a sophisticated algorithm that powers an endless stream of personalized short videos to 170 million US users.
For many, especially younger Americans, TikTok is more than just an app—it’s their favorite source of entertainment, connection, and information.
Its absence would not only leave a void in their digital lives – it would force marketers to scramble to fill the gap and find alternative ways to reach them.
Chris, for one, doesn’t have much faith that TikTok’s assurances will ease the transition. To him, they feel less like guarantees and more like an acknowledgment of the inevitable. After all, promises weren’t cast iron because they weren’t written into contracts. And that uncertainty is already scaring some brands, who are wary of pouring advertising dollars into an app that may not even be allowed in the US anytime soon.
“They are.” [TikTok] write it [make-goods] in the emails, but it’s not written in the contracts,” the US executive added. “It was definitely a problem for some brands because they were quite apprehensive about spending, say, $300,000 up front without the details of the refund in the contract. It became a discussion of, ‘Do you want to risk not doing it?'”
Frustration runs deeper than vague promises. Some marketers believe TikTok is avoiding difficult questions — like where producers and creators will end up if campaigns derail. And rather than issuing refunds outright, they say TikTok is pushing them to redirect funds tied to programs like Pulse, production deals and creator partnerships to its non-US platforms.
“Where do production credits go? Where do creator credits go? And do you know what their solution is? Spend them in the markets where we are still active. They don’t want to return the money,” explained one ad exec on condition of anonymity. “What’s frustrating to me is that we’ve been asking them for a solution for so long. Get your head out of your snack. The bill doesn’t move that fast without real consequences.’
These comments underscore how much the relationship between TikTok and marketers has shifted in just a month. Just last fall, TikTok was aggressively courting tentative deals for 2025, offering them as proof of its indispensability to the US economy. Now these pitches are more muted. Instead of boldly selling the future, TikTok executives are playing the defensive game — focusing less on maximizing revenue and more on preserving goodwill as the clock ticks down.
“As the ban approaches, contingency planning is a top priority and brands must decide whether to hedge their bets and prioritize risk mitigation or hold their ground and hope the ban doesn’t happen,” said Courtney Werpy, associate director of performance media at the company. Collective action. “If it’s banned, the decision can be out of the hands of the brands and the fork in the road can look a little straighter and narrower.”
Other marketers follow a similar playbook, leaning toward contingency plans that feel more like a media planning exercise. According to five advertising executives interviewed for this article, those plans are already in full swing and factoring in every potential outcome.
Amy Rumpler, senior director of search and social media services at Basis Technologies, said her team is still signing orders after January to insert campaigns into 2025. At the same time, they are proactively offering alternative strategies for clients who are afraid to commit to TikTok after the looming with a deadline.
That’s not to say that marketers wouldn’t feel the loss if the app disappeared. But they had six years to prepare for this moment. The real question isn’t whether TikTok is replaceable — it’s whether it needs to be replaced. TikTok’s DNA is everywhere. Even if its algorithm disappears, its influence will remain etched into the fabric of social media. The platform itself may not be as essential as the experience it promoted.
“Although [TikTok] it’s very successful and very influential, like P&G is the biggest spender there,” said Joe Gagliese, co-founder and CEO of Viral Nation. “But it won’t create a hole that can’t be rebuilt elsewhere.”
TikTok did not respond to Digiday’s request for comment.
