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A publicly traded company known to hold the largest bitcoin reserve of any company is now on the verge of adding to the S&P 500, but only if bitcoins avoid a steep decline before the end of the second quarter.
Key with you:
- The inclusion of the S&P 500 strategy concerns bitcoins that remain within 30 June over $ 95,240.
- The new accounting rules allow BTC profits to count on earnings, causing its price for Q2 results.
- Analyst Jeff Walton gives a 91% chance of inclusion based on the historical stability of bitcoins in short time frames.
Financial analyst Jeff Walton said in a video published Tuesday this strategy has a 91% chance of qualifying for incorporation into the S&P 500, unless the price of bitcoins does not drop by more than 10% by June 30.
At the time of his analysis, BTC traded around $ 106,044.
S&P 500 Microstrategy per bitcoin holds $ 95,000
Walton determined $ 95,240 as a critical level; If Bitcoin closes under this threshold, microstrategs may not meet the capacity criteria for earnings.
“To be considered for the S&P 500, the company must show cumulative positive earnings in the last four quarters,” Walton explained.
The strategy has published losses in the last three quarters and, thanks to its massive bitcoin possession, currently 592,345 BTC, its income for Q2 strongly depends on the real value of crypto assets.
Bets are increased by recent volatility. At the weekend, bitcoins were immersed below $ 100,000 in the middle of the renewed geopolitical tension between Israel and Iran, which briefly endangered the position of the strategy.
However, prices have been reflected since then, with BTC trading on Wednesday BTC almost $ 106,200.
The strategy adopted new accounting standards (ASU 2023-08) at the beginning of 2024, allowing unrealized profits and losses from his bitcoin stash to show in pure income.
This change significantly affects its financial statements and the eligibility of S&P 500.
The Walton forecast is based on the historical behavior of BTC. Since September 2014, in more than 3,900 six-day periods, bitcoins have decreased by more than 10% only 343 times or or or about 8.7% of the time.
“The longer we go without a drop, the lower the chance,” Walton said. For example, the chances of a 10% decrease reduce to 4.2% if only two days remain in the quarter.
If a successful strategy would become the second crypto related company that would join the S&P 500 in 2025, after the inclusion of Coinbase in May.
In December 2024, a strategy was added to Nasdaq-100, which joined the series of technological giants.
Strategy could become the highest publicly traded company in the world
In May, Walton The strategy can rise one day become the highest publicly traded company in the world.
Walton believes that the unprecedented Bitcoin exposition gives him a unique advantage.
“The strategy has more of the best assets on the planet and the most unaffected collateral than any other society from multiples,” he said.
As mentioned, strategy Plans to increase up to $ 2.1 billion Through sales of its 10% series and Perpetual Square Preferred Stock.
Increasing capital monitors a similar structure to the previous rounds of fundraising strategy, many of which directly funded extensive Bitcoin purchases.
Contribution Michael Sayro’s strategy has 91% S&P 500 shot if the price BTC holds He appeared for the first time Cryptonews.
