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Market prediction data shows that traders in 2025 set millions on the price of bitcoins reaching a level of over $ 120,000.
The decentralized polymarket platform, a market that asks what prices Bitcoin will hit in 2025, attracted the volume of over $ 15.5 million. Traders allocate the probability of 75%that the asset will exceed $ 120,000.
The data provides a quantifiable view of market beliefs and transfers sentiment to financially supported probabilities.
The platform indicates a 55% chance that bitcoins will exceed $ 130,000 and 33% chance of breaking a $ 150,000 mark. More ambitious goals, such as $ 200,000, are likely to receive a probability of 13%.
A separate market -focused market is more conservative; With more than $ 3.5 million, the probability of 58% will be assigned to a capacity of more than $ 3.5 million to make bitcoins above $ 115,000, but only 30% of the chance that they will exceed $ 120,000 in the same period.
This activity is set against the background of significant development for the polymarket itself. According to data From Analytics Dune Analytics, the user base and the volume of the platform in 2024 of the American elections have expanded, which was per month to the top of the peak $ 2.6 billion In November 2024.
In the months after the elections, a new basic line of activity was set up. The volume of trading last month was $ 1.16 billion, which is more than nine times higher than the volume recorded in June last year.
The number of active merchants, last month at 241,000, was similarly more than seven times higher than in the previous year. This suggests that the platform has retained part of the audience, which it acquired during a significant political event.
The platform activity seems to be changing. From the top of 455,000 active traders in January 2025, the number of participants decreased by 47%.
On the other hand, the volume of the platform was reflected and increased by 30%from April to June 2025. This divergence may point to the consolidation of activity between a smaller group of several strongly capitalized or higher traders.
The average volume per merchant in June 2025 recovered from a low low USD to approximately $ 4,800, which supports the idea that existing users are trading in larger sizes. Recent news Note the platform growth and its recent partnership with X, which the founder of the polymarket Shayne Coplan was backing as a combination of “two best truths to search for truth”.
While prediction markets offer a new form of sentiment analysis, their predictions reflect the current beliefs of the crowd and not certain results.
The user base does not have to represent a wider financial world and all markets carry inherent risks, including the potential of manipulation with actors with a large amount of capital. However, the polymarket exceeded almost all traditional questioning methods during the US 2025 elections. Yet the regulatory environment for prediction markets also remains complex different jurisdictions, For example, the US itself, even in the middle of the last $ 1 billion award.
However, a considerable volume and clear directional probability on the display provide a clear view based on data on where active traders expect the price of Bitcoins trend from their press price $ 109,093.
Bitcoin market data
At the time of the press 11:30 UTC 4 July 2025, Bitcoin is included in the 1st place according to the market ceiling and the price is down 0.75% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin has a market capitalization $ 2.17 trillion with a 24 -hour volume of trading 46.43 billion dollars. More information about Bitcoins ›
Summary of the crypto of the market
At the time of the press 11:30 UTC 4 July 2025The total crypto market is appreciated at the AT $ 3.35 trillion with a 24 -hour association $ 106.58 billion. Bitcoin dominance is currently on 64.61%. More information about market crypto ›
