What A Second Trump Presidency Means For Media And Advertiser Investment

Advertisers’ primary goals are to increase sales, either directly through performance-based marketing or indirectly through brand-based marketing.

Whoever occupies the White House will not change these goals to any meaningful degree. But that doesn’t mean that advertiser investment won’t change depending on the direction of federal policy.

There are key variables that influence ad spend growth. Most important are consumer spending (or more accurately expected consumer spending) and changes in costs and/or competition within specific industries.

As we move into 2025 and beyond, there are several areas where President-elect Donald Trump’s policy proposals will directly affect the advertising industry.

Tariffs

Trump is proposing a 60% increase on imports from countries including China and Mexico and lower tariffs from other countries. Based on his actions during the previous term, consider these initial proposals as a starting point for business negotiations. The final policy will likely look different.

Regardless of the final policy, the tariffs will raise prices for consumers and businesses. A significant increase in tariffs will create a major headwind for advertising sales. Expect these headwinds to be particularly strong in H2 2025 and H1 2026.

We can expect:

• Increased import prices have a negative impact on advertisers in categories such as apparel, consumer electronics and consumer goods. Businesses will experience higher costs, while price increases for consumers due to increased costs could lead to lower consumer spending.
• Consumer spending and advertising budgets for companies and sellers in the China-based market will experience more severe negative impacts. These companies have been a key driver of ad sales growth on both social and retail media platforms, the two main drivers of growth across the advertising industry.
• The ability of TikTok and other Chinese media companies to operate in the US will be a key bargaining chip in trade talks.

Industrial regulation

Potential policy changes at the FCC and FTC will affect companies’ relationships with regulators.

Brendan Carr, Trump’s nominee to chair the FCC, detailed a number of key policy priorities in the Heritage Foundation’s “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise” (part of Project 2025). These policy proposals should be seen as a wish list of where policies can be headed, rather than an agreed platform.

Some of the potential policy priorities include:

• Regulation of Big Tech platforms.
• Amending and updating Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, which legally protects online platforms from liability for third-party content on their platforms.
• Addressing national security concerns surrounding TikTok, with TikTok’s future in the US likely to become a bargaining chip in trade talks with China.

Notably, all three of these policies have bipartisan support and have been priorities of President Joe Biden’s administration. However, the details and regulations differ substantially between the parties.

Project 2025 also sets out some policy priorities for the FTC. A key issue will be the regulation of business practices involving children and adolescents online, which will put direct pressure on social media and user-generated video platforms. Andrew Ferguson, Trump’s pick to head the FTC, has indicated that he will continue to push the big tech firms, particularly in the wake of the alleged censorship and demonetization of conservative views and speech.

On the other hand, the FTC is also likely to take a backseat to antitrust enforcement outside of Big Tech, giving more power to the Justice Department and prosecutors. In 2025 and 2026, expect a surge in mergers and acquisitions in media, technology and advertising, especially with interest rates likely to decline.

Changes to the FDA may lead to changes in regulations regarding direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical advertising. Trump’s pick for Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., has called for tighter regulation of pharmaceutical marketing, including a ban on television advertising for drugs.

That could be a significant blow considering that advertising from prescription drug advertisers reached $16.1 billion last year, while over-the-counter drugs, vitamins and supplements accounted for $5.2 billion, roughly 5% of the total of the advertising industry in aggregate, as estimated by Advertiser Perceptions. .

The question will be consumer spending

While the future state of tariffs and industry regulation remains uncertain for now, any movement on both fronts is likely to affect business costs, resources and consumer spending.

Advertiser Perceptions pre-election estimates for 2025 in the US will reach $434.05 billion, a 5% increase from 2023. Time will tell if we actually see that number.

Going forward, advertisers will face headwinds. But it’s not their first rodeo. Over the past few years, they have adapted to similar challenges due to constrained supply chains, inflation and global pandemics. And ad vendors who have adapted to the current economic environment and adjusted the way they serve advertisers accordingly have gained market share.

We’ll be closely monitoring the economy and ad investment in the coming months, updating our estimates each quarter as the Trump administration’s policies become clearer and we identify growth opportunities for ad sellers.

“Data-driven thinking” is written by members of the media community and contains new ideas about the digital revolution in media.

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