What Tariffs Will — and Won’t — Change for U.S. Bitcoin Miners

Will the Golden Age of Bitcoin mining in America end?

After China forbade crypto in the summer of 2021, a huge piece of mining industry was forced to move – to Kazakhstan, Russia, Canada and other countries with cheap electricity. The largest recipient of this exodus, however, were the United States that in the last four years has overtaken every other country In the world in terms of Hasat (which means that more bitcoins are produced in the US than anywhere else).

Yet President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, revealed on April 2, but has stopped for now, There is a risk of increasing the cost of ASICExtremely powerful computers used to produce bitcoins. Only a handful of companies know how to build these ASICs, and most of their production facilities are located in Southeast Asia, in countries facing about 10% to 50% of tariffs.

While new taxes are unlikely to be based on the import of new machines for US miners, they are likely to slow expansion in the country in the country, Coindesk said several experts.

“The US will still be the main source of Hasat in the foreseeable future, but its roofing dominance is likely to erode, as Bitcoin mining will become a much more global store,” said Taras Kulyk, CEO of Bitcoin Hardware, Syteq Digital.

“We will certainly see us in terms of relative growth,” he added. “Other countries come into space in a large way. Pakistan just announced.” Will devote two gigawatts of power for Bitcoin mining. There are various projects It happens in Ethiopia And abroad. They certainly occupy quite a bit of a growth of the capacity of the exhaust. ”

The tariffs are just a piece of much larger puzzles. Other factors, such as the huge demand for new data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence (AI) and the declining number of ideal places in the US for companies for the establishment of mining devices, are likely to have a greater impact on the miner calculation in terms of choosing the jurisdiction in which it can work.

US operations are still able to use the robust secondary market in the short term to obtain mining sets without paying tariffs. In the long run, ASIC manufacturers are taking steps to produce their machines on American soil.

It seems that the consensus is that tariffs are far from destroying the extraction of bitcoins in the US are simply formed as a new variable that they have to deal with a fast -moving, hyper -money industry.

Biting a bullet

The tariffs mostly represented the miners in April because of how sudden and steep they were. Miners and logistics society rushed to push Asic shipments To the US before the implementation of policy to avoid paying essential taxes – only for the White House to move the deadline for several months.

Now, however, mining companies have adapted to the idea that the imported ASICS will cost at least 10% more than before. However, there is uncertainty whether it is a new normal. Trump’s administration is still in the middle of business negotiations and the court system still have to provide A definitive decision on the legality of its new policies.

“It will probably take a long time to have a definitive answer to what tariffs will look like – at least as long as the Supreme Court weighs,” said Lauren Lin, a hardware leader in the Bitcoin Hardware hardware company, in an interview. “We expect it to take several months, even more than a year.”

Meanwhile, Luxor (who also runs the company for transport) does not see any panic signs among his clients, although according to LIN, there has been an increase in questions about how to prepare for changes in policy in Washington. Not even the secondary market ASIC (where companies based in the US can acquire ownership, cheaper machines) slowing, she said. In other words, the miners deepen.

However, there are new problems, such as the fact that tariffs also influence imported electric hardware. For example, transformers are mostly produced abroad and it was difficult to obtain them before April. The tariffs only worsened the situation. According to an individual who works for a crypto business organization, it was a greater source of frustration for miners than tariffs on ASIC.

Overall, the initial White House tariffs on Southeast Asia countries should be perceived only as a starting point for politics that are likely to evolve over time, said Jeff Laberge, capital market leaders and strategic initiatives in Bitcoin’s Bitdeer Mine, Coindesk said in an interview. “We are quite optimistic that there will be a reasonable result at the end,” he said.

Made in America

The Asic market of $ 30 billion is dominated by Bitmain, a Chinese company whose machines are powered by about 80% of bitcoin hashrateAccording to Theminermag. His competitors include Microbt, Canaan and Bitdeer.

These companies produce the vast majority of their Asic in Malaysia, Thailand and China, although Microbt already has at least one device in Pennsylvania and has announced in December that it is launching a new production line in the United States. Canan has also completed the US test run, which means that now has the ability to build ASIC in the country if it decides.

The Trump administration tariffs achieve one of their set goals (to strengthen the US industry) in motivating these ASIC manufacturers to expand their operations in the country.

Canaan said Coindesk that while the US production is costly, it brings advantages to geographically closer to its customers and reducing the risks of the supplier chain. The company said that it is currently investigating the possibility of partnership with existing US -based manufacturers for its own purposes. MicroBtt is also looking In ways to avoid tariffs by increasing the US production.

Bitten, A new but technologically advanced player on the Asic sceneHe considers the situation to be an opportunity to take part in the market from established entities. “We would like to migrate as much to the US as much as possible,” Laberge said. “It will take some time to increase.”

“Being a manufacturer and a miner gives us enormous options, because we will always have a home for the sets we produce, be it in our own data centers or with a third party,” he added. Bitdeer has mining operations in Texas and Ohio, among other things.

The heavy weight, Bitmain, did not disclose new plans to increase US production since the announcement of tariffs in April. However, the company is likely to prove that it is being built in the US in accordance with Trump’s goals, Kulyk Synteq said. Bitmain did not respond to the request for comment.

In any case, the consensus seems to be that the expanding production capacity in the US will be a slow and costly process.

“Whether we are scalp the production of our machines in the US, it depends on our ability to reduce the costs and demand of our customers in the US. If demand from American customers is low, production does not make sense here,” Canan Coindesk said. “In addition, if tariffs for products from Southeast Asia [end up being] Low, then we do not necessarily build our production skills in the United States. ”

End of golden age?

The miners therefore quickly adapt to the new reality of tariffs, and Asic manufacturers look ready to increase local production. Yet Bitcoins based on the American hashrate (Currently, more than 40% of the global hashrate costs)) Probably it will not grow as quickly as it has in the last four years.

For one thing, tariffs have an impact. Bitcoin mining is a highly competitive industry and companies are always looking for ways to reduce costs. If the choice is between the opening of a new mining facility in Texas or Ontario, the tariffs can swing this decision in favor of the other.

Even more important, however, is the fact that it is increasingly difficult to find new places in the US that meet the necessary requirements to spin new operations of bitcoin mining. “Most low -hanging fruit was selected in the US,” Laberge said.

Not to mention that the competition has become more intense. Data centers devoted to a high -performance calculation (HPC) appear Throughout the country in order to scal AI and the main players of the industry-Microsoft, META, Google-are deeply pocket. If the site is suitable for both mining and HPC, it is unlikely that the miners won the offer war.

They wouldn’t necessarily want to. HPC data centers are more complex and capital -intensive capitalBut they also bring much higher profits; This led a number of bitcoin mining companies to diversify to AI.

“HPC Electron persecution is the main topic for the next two to 10 years,” Kulyk Coindesk said. “Bitcoin miners certainly have targets on the backs for acquisitions and consolidation in space … as a branch are likely to eat or absorb into the overall digital calculation.”

This phenomenon is likely to remain in the US for the technical sophistication needed to build and operate the HPC Center. Political considerations also play a major role, taking into account the ongoing AI arms between the US and China. In other words, bitcoin miners outside the US will not be affected by the rapid growth of the HPC industry in the same way.

For miners based on the US, the journey does not have to be expanded in terms of megawatts, but in terms of efficiency, according to Laberge.

“If you look at global hashrate right now … Most of the trains have an efficiency of 30 jouls on Terahash (J/Th) or higher,” he said. For comparison, Bitmain and Bitdeer The latest generation of machines are closer to 10 j/th in efficiency. “In today’s economy, it’s best marginally profitable.”

“All these sets must be refreshed,” he continued. “We see it as $ 4-6 billion per year by addressable market for the next three to five years.”

Repair (June 24, 2025, 16:30 UTC): Canaan is not looking at building its own production facilities based on the US, as already mentioned in the article, but a mullengal idea of ​​partnership with existing American manufacturers.