Why smart marketers should front-load spending in 2025

I have seen many predictions about what marketers should expect, anticipate or do in 2025. The steady rise of AI, other technologies that could be the fruit, how to use CDPS, and whether marketers even use CDPs – some things are new, but many of them are things we’ve been predicting for years.

As I said in My earlier post Here at Martech, I’m not a prediction guy. I don’t do the “New Year, New” thing. I am 53 years old. There is no new me, only an updated version.

I’d rather examine what’s happening in our industry and find ways marketers can take advantage of the changes or push back against the downsides. This column will address that last point this time.

From reduction to investment

In my last post I emphasized how important it is for traders to have a backup plan. This plan should help them deal with possible falls. These declines can come from country issues, changes within the company, or other unexpected challenges. Such challenges can threaten annual goals or objectives. These conditions are also set in discussions at the highest levels of your company.

Here are some insights into questions that frequently come up in conversations with C-level executives. Let’s call it my Top 10 list for January 2025*

1. What is our measure of success and what do we do with underperforming channels?
2. With the New Congress, do we have a path to a national approach to privacy here in the US? If we copy the GDPR, what does that do to our company practices?
3. What impact will tariffs have on our company and how do we think consumers will respond? How do we communicate that?
4. How would tariffs affect our supply chain? Should we start looking for goods from non-tariff countries?
5. How will Meta’s plan to end fact-checking affect the performance of the platform and our spending there? What should our next move be?
6. If the Department of Justice loosens some state restrictions, how will that affect us?
7. Are we embracing AI the right way and are we aligned on our strategy with our Martech Stack?
8. What is our message to consumers, in this age of deep political division, who want to know our values?
9. Do we invest more in brick-and-mortar and real-world experiences with products, or do we continue to invest online?
10. We changed suppliers post-kosid. Has the innovation we want materialized? Should we renew those contracts or go through the RFP again?

*Although my list targets US traders, many of these items will affect traders in countries that work significantly with US markets.

Questions like this appeared in 2024 as well. This curiosity has prompted companies to pause or reduce spending. This uncertainty has led many companies to increase their defenses rather than invest in bold new directions. Although this year’s questions are different, could history repeat itself in 2025 with another pullback?

I believe not, or at least not immediately. We see a glimmer of good news in what is likely to be awed demand from last year’s stagnation softening the market for 2025.

That doesn’t mean traders can sit back. Instead, they should spend as much of their budget as possible in the first six months of the year. Any money earmarked for new programs or technology, acquisitions, conferences or educational events – move it to the first half of 2025 if you can.

As I mentioned, any increase in spending is likely from companies recovering from a year of cuts and cautious budgeting. While this may solve short-term issues, it is not a sustainable approach, especially if competitors increase their spending.

The need to remain competitive is likely to drive further investment in change – but the story doesn’t end there.

You are deeper: 10 Martech Predictions of What Won’t Happen in 2025

From investment to reduction?

This year we are likely to see major investment in change, which is good news. But how long will that investment last? The six month period I discussed earlier only predicts that it occurs within the next 12 months.

Let’s look at three factors that should affect company spending this year and why investing in the first half is important. Uncertainty in the second half could lead companies to pause or reduce their budgets.

1. market instability

Markets hate volatility, whether caused by inflation, interest rates, a volatile stock market, lower consumer spending or unanswered questions. It brings uncertainty and asks companies to conserve spending wherever they can.

My list is just a sample of the conversations executives have as they try to read the tea leaves while planning 18 to 24 months out on products, expansion, goals and objectives.

C-level executives will look at market volatility, determining their actions, including spending decisions.

Consider one finding in a recent study Statesman::

“In a 2024 survey of chief marketing officers (CMOs) from for-profit companies in the United States, respondents reported that an average of 7.7 percent of their employers’ revenue was allocated to marketing activities. That was the lowest average share for the fall survey since August 2018.”

That decline is problematic for companies that need better technology to compete and rise above the noise of competitors.

As an educated salesperson, you should be paying attention to the same news that your executors are following. Watch statistics to help you understand where your market is going. This way you won’t be aware if things change and you will spend the priority better if you suspect that it might come.

2. Political change

National elections or changes in government create instability. This is not a comment on the winners or losers of the recent US elections. That’s just reality.

New administrations bring in new cabinet members and staff with different policies and priorities. Candidates must try to make good on their campaign promises. That means change, which in turn creates instability because people aren’t sure if those changes will help or hurt in the long run.

Many people are watching to see what effects these changes will have on a global and local level, extending beyond the stock market. C-level executives are among them as they develop business policies, strategies and forecast for the next 12 months and beyond.

What we often forget about executive offices in corner nut offices is that their jobs aren’t just to sell stuff and make money for their companies. Their role is also to protect these companies and employees. Political instability is an unknown factor that can affect market volatility and become something these executives need to navigate around to protect their companies.

Political instability also affects consumer spending, as I will show below.

3. Consumer safety

This is the same as consumer spending as the two generally go hand in hand. When consumers worry about their wages, they stop spending.

We saw an increase in discretionary spending in the US in 2024. Intentions for consumer discretionary spending rose for the fifth consecutive month in December 2024, but remain weaker compared to 2021 levels, per 2021 level Deloitte study. Also, both higher and lower income earners reported better finances, although the percentage increase for lower earners stagnated.

When we look across the board, consumer spending has flowed toward every company. Executives often consider whether market or political instability affects consumers’ confidence to spend money.

Earlier this year, Martech reported on the study It found that political views influenced voters’ shopping and media habits:

“Half of independents say their purchasing and media decisions align with their political views – whatever they may be – and 58% say they tend to buy from organizations that actively support the causes they support. This group is also the least likely to buy from small, local businesses. “

These concerns can make updating your email segmentation strategy more urgent. Instead of just “right message/right audience”, it can also help you forecast spend. Can you answer these questions?

• Are you segmenting your lists and identifying your most loyal customers?
• Are you segmenting them enough to see those macro and micro swings?
• Are you ahead of the curve in determining whether spending is increasing or decreasing for your program?

These are in your direct line of sight as a seller. They help you forecast what will happen for your company and allow you to maintain or adjust your plan for the near or long term.

Consumer spending provides a broad view of the economy and consumer safety across industries. However, you need to focus on your specific vertical, consumer, client and company.

Having an effective segmentation plan and reporting capabilities will be crucial, as you will be the one to determine whether these factors will impact your goals and your marketing efforts.

You are deeper: Stop defending your marketing budget – start proving your worth

Wrapping: Use it before you lose it

Back to the six-month plan I mentioned: We have about six months before we start to see the impact, if any, of market, political, and spending volatility.

Currently the market is “stable”. America’s economic recovery after the Cold War is the envy of the world. Prices seem relatively high, but they come back down to earth. However, executives are looking at what could happen over the next 12+ months and will try to hedge against anything could it happens.

As I said earlier, I expect big investments in the first six months as companies aim to tap into their budgets before the executive memorandum arrives, calling for a pause or reduction in spending, especially on support operations like travel, new programs and hiring. For traders, you should accelerate the investments you didn’t make last year or continue the investments you started.

Everything will be Ducky if we get to the six month mark and everyone is still fine. But, remember, we had a company spending gap last year. Pausing or reducing spending two years in a row is not sustainable for any company. If you had to regroup last year because your company cut your budget, spend the money now to get back on track.

This won’t be land-locking—you still need to demonstrate value and return on investment—but you’ll protect your email program from falling further. You are the email CEO and channel protection is one of your responsibilities as a team leader. Let’s do this!